Trading the gap between weather science and market prices.
polyAether is an autonomous system that forecasts daily city temperatures and trades the prediction markets built on them — earning its edge through disciplined probability calibration, not speed or hype.
What it is
A patient machine for a specific, repeating question.
Every day, prediction markets ask the same kind of question: how warm will a given city get? polyAether answers it with a probabilistic forecast, compares that forecast to the market's implied odds, and takes the side where the price and the science disagree.
It doesn't chase headlines or react to sentiment. It runs the same disciplined loop across an ~80-city universe, day after day, and only acts when its own uncertainty is narrower than the crowd's.
The edge
Calibration, not prediction bravado.
Crowds tend to overprice uncertainty — spreading their probability too wide, hedging against outcomes that rarely happen. A forecast that is genuinely well-calibrated captures that difference. The edge isn't being right more often; it's being honest about the odds more precisely.
Read the textbookModel vs. market distribution
How it runs
Built to run quietly, continuously, at its own pace.
Always on
A dedicated server carries the loop 24/7 — forecasting, pricing, and reconciling markets without a human in the seat.
~80-city universe
Forecasts span roughly eighty cities, so the system is never dependent on a single market or a single day's weather.
Millisecond reactor
An order-book reactor watches prices at millisecond latency, so when a market misprices the odds, the response is already staged.
Pre-live paper validation — no real money at risk yet.
polyAether is currently proving itself against a paper-P&L ledger. There is no live capital, and no track record to point to. What you can watch today is the system trading exactly as it would with money on the line — so its calibration can be judged before any is committed.
Watch a disciplined forecaster do its work.
Log in to the operator console, follow the live paper trades, or read how the calibration edge is built from the ground up.